Clinton vets give advice on how Obama can win Ohio

Barack Obama and Bill Clinton: Getty Images PhotoBill Clinton was the last Democratic presidential candidate to carry Ohio and the first since FDR to win it twice.

Three men that helped Clinton win Ohio in 1992 spoke to PolitickerOH.com about what Barack Obama must do to win the state. Their advice varies regarding tactics and regions but they all practically say "Go southeast, young man" to Appalachian Ohio where Hillary Clinton routed him in the primary.

Polling shows a mixed picture of the Ohio race, with Rasmussen putting it at a dead-heat and Quinnipiac showing Obama in the lead by six points. While Obama has been rising, he still has less support from his own party than McCain in both polls and trails McCain among those who identify themselves as independents or moderates. Both polls said 7 percent are undecided.

Bill Clinton's 1992 national campaign manager and Athens native David Wilhelm said he sees southeast Ohio as an opportunity area for Obama, not a problem to be avoided. In fact, Obama should personally campaign there face-to-face, stressing economic issues.

"I think if Barack Obama campaigns personally in small-town Ohio and he raises these economic issues, these bread and butter issues, the same economic issues that were central to Ted Strickland's strength as a candidate in this state, he may not be able to win small-town Ohio or rural Ohio but he ought to be able to do better than John Kerry did, do better than Al Gore did."

Kerry won only four of the 29 counties that make up Appalachian Ohio - the same four counties that Gore won in 2000. In contrast, Clinton carried 17 of the 29 in 1992 and three more in 1996.

In a sign that Obama may integrate Strickland's successful 2006 strategy, his campaign has hired Strickland campaign manager Aaron Pickrell to run the Ohio campaign.

Unlike Clinton, Obama has had some trouble connecting with individual voters, at least since he campaigned in Iowa and New Hampshire more than six months ago.

Wilhelm said a personal touch is necessary, in addition to sound policy positions, to win voters' hearts on economic matters. Wilhelm made sure that Clinton used empathy and charm with a bus tour of rural Ohio immediately after the 1992 convention.

Obama's trademark isn't a bus tour but a thousand-strong rally, which Wilhelm said insulates Obama.

"David Axelrod has suggested that they overdid the rallies and I think there's truth to that because the rallies do not permit that kind of more personal retail campaigning where people see the humanity of the candidate," Wilhelm said. "I clearly believe Senator Obama has that and he will have an opportunity in the general election to show that. That's why I think it's so critical that he campaigns personally in the small towns of the United States, the small towns of the Midwest, the small towns of Ohio."

Those small towns are critical to winning the state because the 2004 Democratic get-out-the-vote effort was so successful that it got virtually every Democrat to vote in Columbus, Cincinnati and Cleveland, Wilhelm said.

That sentiment is partially shared by Greg Haas, who was the 1992 coordinated campaign director for Clinton and has worked on other statewide races in Ohio.

While Haas said its "ridiculous" to believe that every person who can be persuaded to vote Democratic was turned out in 2004, Obama has the most room for growth in suburban and exurban counties.

Haas identified them as: Delaware, Fairfield, Licking, Pickaway and Madison counties near Columbus; Lake County near Cleveland; Butler, Warren and Clermont counties near Cincinnati.

"What Obama I think needs to do is finish in those exurban counties between Ted Strickland's numbers and John Kerry's numbers," Haas said. Generally, Kerry finished in the mid-30s against President Bush in the ring counties of Columbus, while Strickland got about 15 percent more of the vote than Kerry did. The same improvement by Strickland over Kerry occurred in the Cincinnati-area counties though Strickland didn't win a majority.

Obama's youth will help him related to younger baby boomers that dominate these counties and an intensely online and local grassroots campaign will drive his message, Haas said.

Still, in some areas the sky isn't the limit for Obama. John Marshall did advance preparation for Clinton in 1992 and Kerry in 2004. Marshall said that Obama must carefully target voters in areas such as reliably Republican southwest Ohio and culturally conservative western Ohio between I-75 and Indiana. Overly optimistic targeting that isn't careful may turn out the opposition or wastes resources on resistant voters.

"Understand that you can't win [some areas] but be realistic in your goal and how you're going to achieve that goal. If you can't win 51 percent, and you're getting 34, shoot for 40," Marshall said.

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